A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."