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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's long-running bid to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to host the world's biggest climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to many people who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

However, uniquely, Ankara declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a conference obstructed from the top if his administration managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, civil society is essential at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.