Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.